MyDD :: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24

Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24

by nevadadem, Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 10:45:03 AM EST

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/

Huckabee and Obama continue to lead in Iowa according to a new Strategic Vision (R) poll which will be released tomorrow. On the Democratic side, Obama leads with 33% of the vote and Clinton and Edwards are statistically tied for second with 25% and 24%. Biden and Richardson each received 4%.

On the Republican side, Huckabee leads with 30% while Romney has 25%. Thompson came in third with 13% followed by Giuliani with 10% and McCain with 5%. The poll was conducted December 8 to 10 with 600 people from each party. The margin of error is 4.5%.

Tags: polls Obama Hillary (all tags)

Permalink :: 19 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

Poll is unreliable until we see internals. No offense, we just get so many polls here that we have to look at internals for ALL of them.

by world dictator on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 10:48:19 AM EST

I agree (none / 0)

that internals are important but the more polls the better that way we can get a feel for the trend of the race. at this point it's fair to say Iowa NH and SC are all tied. anyhting else is jsut spinning on the margins, NH is truly remarkable but not unexpected I have been saying her lead with all the indies in the state was an illusion circa Bush 2000.

Obama! because 51% isn't enough!

by nevadadem on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 10:55:13 AM EST

Re: I agree (none / 0)

Wow , so many polls from Obama supporters even before I heard my morning cofee whatever happened to the we don't care about polls mantra.

Okay that was just an attempt to make a little fun.

However you make a good point , at this point the early states is a toss up but I would still say I have more faith in New Hampshire than the other states although I am not as confident in her been able to parlay a comeback victory as I was a few months back but I won't bet against her organization and kathy sullivan.

Obama seems to have gotten an oprah bounce among women and independents (short term/long term ) according to rasmussen poll in New Hampshire but not in Iowa , it actually seems to have been a reverse bounce with clinton gaining a few .

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:09:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree (none / 0)

world dictator isn't an obama supporter and he posted a poll.

"Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forward." - Soren Kierkegaard

by SixthElement on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 12:13:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

Didn't you love reading all of those comments yesterday, floating around the blogosphere about how Oprah didn't give Obama any bounce as the polls (one day out) didn't show any improvement for Obama.

Hey, who knows if this is from Oprah, or not? As for me, I say, who cares? It's just good news.

No Quacks, please.

by noquacks on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:02:52 AM EST

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

Hey, who knows if this is from Oprah, or not?

There is no "this" here at all. These are almost exactly the same results as the last Strategic Vision Poll. (And the Rasmussen poll quoted in another diary also has almost exactly the same results as previously). There's no Iowa bounce for Obama from Oprah or anybody else. It's been flat the last week or two there.

by markjay on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:12:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

I agree, the Oprah bounce, if there is one, has yet to be detected.

But this is a good thing for Obama. It means that he is the generator of his current surge. Oprah is just like icing on the cake, as our young college students in Iowa.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:16:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

bingo (none / 0)

even Obama said no one should vote for me because of Oprah, so they poll that question which I would have answered no on. she got him great publiciity and a chance to talk to voters in person.

Obama! because 51% isn't enough!

by nevadadem on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:05:38 AM EST

Re: bingo (none / 0)

Right, I love the way the anti-Obama crowd injects the strawman argument that Oprah was going to "deliver" votes to Obama.

All Oprah does is (1) galvaizes folks already support Obama and (2) gets others to pay attention so that Obama can make the sale.

Now, can you imagine if Oprah has endorsed Hillary. These same people would be ecstatic and wouldn't hesitate to toss it in all of our faces.

The truth effects of Oprah, if there are any, won't be detected until later polls come out. What is more important in the mean time, however, is the debate on Thurday afternoon.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:14:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

With Obama closing on on her Hillary's coming attacks will look desperate--or they can easily be spun that way by the Obama camp.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:10:33 AM EST

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

Howard Fineman:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22217110/

Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign is teetering on the brink, no matter what the meaningless national horserace numbers say. The notion that she has a post-Iowa "firewall" in New Hampshire is a fantasy, and she is in danger of losing all four early contests, including Nevada and South Carolina - probably to Sen. Barack Obama, who is now, in momentum terms, the Democratic frontrunner.

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:30:03 AM EST

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

You can practically hear Fineman cackling with glee at Clinton's predicament. I'd rather see the guy made to look like a fool, again.

by souvarine on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:45:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Rasmussen's numbers are different (none / 0)

With Clinton ahead of Obama and Edwards in third place (within MOE).

We'll find out on January 3. Iowa is still a tossup.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 11:32:52 AM EST

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

Strategic Vision has been the most Clinton-hostile poll this year. Earlier this summer they would show her pulling in 15%, 16%, when every other poll showed her in the mid-20s already. So, enjoy with care, although I must say that the theme that Obama is inevitable and gangbusters in Iowa could very well work to his detriment in a major way (=house of cards falling apart) should he not win the state now. To that end the Rasmussen poll showing Clinton actually ahead of Obama in Iowa in all 3 measures (raw polling numbers, most likely to caucus and most committed at this point) should be a major worry for Obama. He needs to win Iowa, and it is increasingly the expectation that he wins it big. Any loss, even by 1% point, and he probably is going down big. Even a close win may now be a problem, given that the polls that are getting the most media play are those that show Obama leading by 6%, 8% in Iowa, not the ones that show him actually trailing or a much closer race.

by georgep on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 12:00:24 PM EST

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

George:

Obama has closed the gap in NH and SC.
NMUR poll: Clinton 31
Obama 30

Rasmussen; Obama 31 Clinton 28

iNSIDERS aDVANTAGE SC
oBAMA 28 cLINTON 22

Survey USA cLINTON 44 Obama 40

The trends have to be troubling for Clinton

Rasmussen national daily tracking
Clinton 36
Obama 28

cLINTON HAS BEEN IN THE 30'S THE LAST 14 DAYS.

Intrade IA oBAMA 60 Clinton 37
NH oBAMA 50 cLINTON 50
SC oBAMA 55 Clinton 45 o

by BDM on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 01:01:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

Hey, we'll see. Other national polls show a completely different picture, and, lo and behold, Clinton is ahead in Iowa as per Rasmussen? I thought Obama is surging there? Isn't he supposed to be ahead by 8% or 6%? Not so fast. Iowa will be interesting, and Obama better win it big, or his inevitability will become a major issue.

by georgep on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 01:41:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

Obama inevitable? That's silly talk. The prevailing narrative right now is that Obama has a real shot to pull it off, but that he needs to beat Clinton in IA to do so. Just because Intrade is predicting an Obama victory in the early states by slim margins doesn't mean he is inevitable or even the favority. Indeed, Clinton is still predicted by those markets to receive the nomination despite predictions in the same market that she is likely to lose IA, NH, and SC.

And, I don't think Obama has to win IA big. It doesn't look like he will need much of a bounce to have a shot in NH and SC. We will see, however. I'm just glad he has a real shot to pull it off. I feel good about our organization, so if it comes down to that in IA or elsewhere, we just might win this thing.

by DPW on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 01:54:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

I don't think any campaign can trust any of the polls (dems or gop). Everything is in flux and the biggest unknown is the weather. Clinton, appropriately, wants an ice storm. Obama, appropriately, wants sunshine. If I'm Obama, I'm loading up on shovels and snowtires just in case.

by Javier Doval on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 12:16:57 PM EST

Re: Iowa poll Obama 33 Clinton 25 Edwards 24 (none / 0)

If Obama wins by that kind of margin in Iowa, he's the nominee by Jan 29.

by desmoulins on Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 01:38:02 PM EST

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