MyDD :: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa

new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa

by nevadadem, Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:20:58 PM EST

http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles /2007/12/14/news/latest_news/6ed995c7ca2 1cbe5862573b1005dc02e.txt

Presidential candidates Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee hold 9-point leads in Iowa with less than three weeks to go before the Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new poll conducted for Lee Enterprises newspapers.

The poll, conducted with 500 likely caucus-goers from Dec. 10 through Dec. 13, said Obama, a senator from Illinois, led in the Democratic race with 33 percent, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who had 24 percent each.

Tags: Obama polls 2008 (all tags)

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Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

Note the the margin or error is 4.5, So Obama's lead is technically statistically significant.

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:23:14 PM EST

but the age breakdown is WAY off (none / 0)

Chris Woods dug up the age breakdown of this poll sample and posted it at Bleeding Heartland:

18-29: 96 respondents or 16% of those surveyed
30-44: 186 respondents or 31% of those surveyed
45-59: 179 respondents or 30% of those surveyed
60+: 139 respondents or 23% of those surveyed

I believe that in 2004 two-thirds of caucus-goers were over 50.

Anyone who believes that 47 percent of caucus-goers will be under 45 is living in fantasyland. My precinct doesn't even have many Democrats under age 40.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 03:44:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: but the age breakdown is WAY off (none / 0)

The 18-19 is the same as it was in 2004. I don't know about 30-44

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 03:54:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

if you believe that voters over age 60 (none / 0)

will comprise only 23 percent of those who show up on January 3, I think you are deluding yourself.

This poll is clearly overstating the proportion of voters under age 45 and understating the proportion of voters over age 60.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 03:56:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: if you believe that voters over age 60 (none / 0)

You missed what cardboard said desmoinesdem.

You're saying "Poll is overstating 45 and under"

other guy said, "18-29 is what it was in 2004, I don't know about 30-44 though"

So when you responded, you could have addressed what the % of 30-44 group was in 2004, or said that 30-44 was overstated compared to 2004, instead of grouping it up as a whole, since Cardboard mentioned the 18-29 group was about 2004's %. Repeating yourself just puts this conversation in a loop. You missed the point cardboard was making.

"Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forward." - Soren Kierkegaard

by SixthElement on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 04:01:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: if you believe that voters over age 60 (none / 0)

According to desmoinedem , she still sees more Richardson supporters in her area then Obama...

by Prodigy on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 04:08:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the 2004 exit poll (none / 0)

17-29 (17%)
30-44 (15%)
45-64 (41%)
65 and Older (27%)

68% of attenedees in 2004 were over 45 vs 53% in this poll. This poll appears to be overstating the 30-44 vote and undertating the 45-64 vote.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primari es/pages/epolls/IA/

by fladem on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 04:35:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

thanks for looking this up (none / 0)

Not long ago psericks had a front-page post showing that Obama's support is actually higher in the 30-44 age group than in the 18-29 age group.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 04:41:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

Uh oh.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:23:35 PM EST

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

My new ringtone: "Well Hillary, I look forward to you advising me as well."

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:25:06 PM EST

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

how great was that line!

Obama! because 51% isn't enough!

by nevadadem on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:27:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

That's the beauty of Obama, he's always attacks from a denfensive position.

The line was only good because Clinton rudely interjected herself when she should have watched as Obama muddled his way through a legitimately good question.

But she just couldn't resist...and got smashed.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:31:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

I had the same reaction. I'm for Edwards for his policy and philosophy, and many other reasons, but I really, really enjoyed that moment.

by desmoulins on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:33:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

And did you hear?... after Hillary said, "I wanna hear that!", Obama snidely under his breath goes, "You wanna hear that huh?"

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:35:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

Obama has the timing of a comic. He waited just long enough for maximum impact.

My favorite moment was actually Obama standing up for Biden. Very classy and statesmanlike. You can hear Biden quietly thanking Obama after he finished.

by JoeCoaster on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 02:08:59 PM EST
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Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

The laughed her way into that exchange.

by danIA on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:42:31 PM EST
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Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

She*

by danIA on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:42:53 PM EST
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Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

That moment could go down in history as when the leadership torch of the Democratic Party was passed (taken actually) from one generation to the next. Of course, we're still three weeks away from one person voting. But I love the BO-mentum!

Our Moment Is Now

by mboehm on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 02:30:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

He never answered the question. And why get advice from Clinton if he claims she's just the same ole politician? Makes no sense to me.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 02:56:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

The real questions is why all those former Clintonites decided to go with Obama's camp. Yes, they advise him, but the head sets the tone.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 03:19:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

The real questions is why all those former Clintonites decided to go with Obama's camp. Yes, they advise him, but the head sets the tone.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 03:19:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

The real questions is why all those former Clintonites decided to go with Obama's camp. Yes, they advise him, but the head sets the tone.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 03:19:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

He answered he seeks out good people no matter where they've come from and that there were good people in Clinton, Carter, even Bush I. And even JFK. He has taken a group of seasoned, experienced advisors and combined them with some of our best and brightest young minds like Samantha Power to create a very impressive Foreign Policy team that will, under his direction, move this country away from a Foreign Policy based on fear.

by Piuma on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 04:05:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: new poll Obama up 9 in Iowa (none / 0)

He is accusing Clinton of her foreign policy, so why take her advice if you are criticizing it? Does not seem to add up to me.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 06:56:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ras says Clinton up 2 (none / 0)

Souix City has Obama up 9 --- who knows.

I say it is tight as a tick and don't rule Edwards out.

by dpANDREWS on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:27:03 PM EST

Re: Ras says Clinton up 2 (none / 0)

I agree dp, jsut posting because it jsut cam over the wire I think hotline has it tied. That said as of now Obama cleary has the momentum.

Obama! because 51% isn't enough!

by nevadadem on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:28:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This poll was conducted by Research 2000 (none / 0)

a pretty well respected polling outfit.

This is the third poll of the last four to find Obama above 30.

Still, up by 9!!!.

Not so sure how accurate this one is..

by fladem on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:28:54 PM EST

Re: This poll was conducted by Research 2000 (none / 0)

Yeah, I kinda wish Iowa were a straight up primary. Anything could happen.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:32:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This poll was conducted by Research 2000 (none / 0)

I feel very good about Obama ground game. I've been feeling for quite some time that if he could close the poll gap which plays into people's perceptions of whether the country will really vote for him, if he could overcome that the ground structure will take him home. We'll see, but I feel very good. He is now playing into his strengths. He has always debated and conducted himself more as the frontrunner than the aggressive challenger. This is where he wants to be.

by Piuma on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 02:39:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This poll was conducted by Research 2000 (none / 0)

Aren't these the folks that predicted the Kerry win and surge and to a lesser extent, Edwards surge in 2003?

by aiko on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 02:19:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Last R2000 Poll (none / 0)

was Nov. 15, and had C-27, O-25, E-21... I think every now and then one of these diaries should list the candidates Obama, Edwards, Clinton - just sayin'.

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:32:06 PM EST

Re: The Last R2000 Poll (none / 0)

OK, so now he have clear trend lines.

"Well Hillary, I looking forward to you advising me as well." - Barack Obama

by General Sherman on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 01:33:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Last R2000 Poll (none / 0)

Where is Georgep he is the poll guru?

by BDM on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 03:06:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

New Hotline Iowa Poll (none / 0)

Poll

by iamready on Fri Dec 14, 2007 at 05:23:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]