MyDD :: here comes McCain

here comes McCain

by nevadadem, Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 12:57:18 PM EST

It's long been my theory that McCain just might survive and re-emerge as the only Republican that's actually presidential material faults and all. It's starting to happen check out rasmussen today, I worry about this becuase McCain outside the constraints of appealing to gop primary voters would be an extremely good candidate. In fact if the dems nominate Hillary she will lose to him and lose badly. Niether would be seen as a change candidate or as agianst the war but McCain would be seen as mr good guy by partison and Hillary as polarizing. If dems nominate Hillary and they go with McCain their least divisive figure we deserve to lose this election.

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics /2007/12/new_rasmussen_polls_in_ia_nh.ht mlIn Iowa (496 GOP LV, Dec. 17), Huckabee's large lead has disappeared while McCain made the biggest positive move.

Huckabee 28 (-9 vs. last poll, Dec. 10)
Romney 27 (+4)
McCain 14 (+8)
Giuliani 8 (even)
Thompson 8 (even)
Paul 6 (+1)

Huckabee leads the RCP Average for Iowa by 5 points

In New Hampshire (GOP LV, Dec. 18), Romney's lead over McCain has dwindled.

Romney 31 (-2 vs. last poll, Dec. 11)
McCain 27 (+9)
Giuliani 13 (-2)
Huckabee 11 (-3)
Paul 7 (-1)
Thompson 3 (+1)

Tags: mcCain 2008 electability (all tags)

Permalink :: 26 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

This is definitely very worrying. McCain is the only Republican I think could win the general election.

by Progressive America on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:01:25 PM EST

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

McCain comes off as strong now, but he's so old he will lose every debate just from aging and appearance. I think he'd lose of that "tough McCain" as the campaign wore on if he were to make it through the primary. Don't forget the Christian right might third party him.

"Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forward." - Soren Kierkegaard

by SixthElement on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:19:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

Thats weird , I actually think the opposite .

If Mccain was their candidate , Hillary Clinton would be the best bet to go against him.

A Mccain - Obama race would be dominated by the national security questions , experience , cic , ready to lead questions.

That would be tough for Obama to overcome.

However electability is perception among many partisans.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:02:45 PM EST

6 % of progressive blod KOS (none / 0)

support this wonderful disaster

by marketingman on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 04:08:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

McCain would be the toughest candidate for us to face, that's for sure. However, New Hampshire seems to be his only strength among the early states, so I wouldn't write that comeback narrative just yet. Nor would I discount the possibility.

I think it's quite silly to say that Hillary would not be seen as the anti-Iraq war candidate in an election against McCain. In fact, our primary asset against McCain is that he is unambiguously in favor of this unpopular war. If Democratic primary voters are fine with giving Hillary the nod, there's no way the electorate at large is going to decide there's no difference between her and McCain on the war.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:06:11 PM EST

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

unfortunately the way the surge is being reported as a "success" McCains war stance isn't as big of a deal. To beat McCain it needs to be a change candidate who makes McCain look like yesterdays news, Hillary is not that person.

Obama! because 51% isn't enough!

by nevadadem on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good Point (none / 0)

It's also worth noting that while McCain's war stance will probably move further to the left in a GE, Clinton's will probably move somewhat to the right, putting them both in murky centrist positions. Does anyone seriously expect Clinton to be the anti-war candidate?

by HatchInBrooklyn on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:22:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

The surge has not changed the fundamental public opposition to the war not at all.

Also, by the time of the GE the surge will be a faint memory. We can't sustain these troop levels and we're almost certain to have further problems in Iraq, unfortunately.

Don't get fooled by the media narratives. The war is still the #1 issue for voters and they still want it to be over with.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I Don't Know About That (none / 0)

It's my feeling that McCain has become more supportive of the war mostly as a means of wooing primary voters. You can bet that his framing will change significantly if he makes it to the GE. McCain and Clinton both voted for the IWR and until recently their rhetoric regarding Iraq hasn't been all that different. As Senators they've been critical of the conduct of the war, as opposed to critical of the war as a whole.

McCain appeals to some Democrats in much the same way to Obama appeals to some Republicans. He speaks respectfully about their views and goes out of his way to make inroads to the other side through things like his myriad Daily Show appearances. I personally know at least two very liberal people who've told me that given the choice between Clinton and McCain, they'd at least be tempted to go with McCain.

by HatchInBrooklyn on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:16:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McCain would be a gift (2.00 / 1)

In the polling I saw last year when asked would vote for a woman, African American, Morman, etc. , the loser was an old person.

People said more than any other issue old age was a no go for them as President. McCain would be 2 years older than Reagan when Reagan ran.

Furthermore, McCain will either a) have to run as a flip flopping sell out, or b) stand his ground on issues that will simply make many hardcore conservatives stay home.

His all war all the time bit won't be popular with the average American either.

by dpANDREWS on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:11:59 PM EST

Re: McCain would be a gift (none / 0)

good for you. i'm so tired of fearful democrats.

I really don't understand how that is an attack; lol. ~ by Jerome Armstrong

by jello on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:34:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

McCain will be tough. He's by far the best of the GOP lot.

very worrisome, no matter who our candidate is. I do agree he'd eat Obama for lunch, though.

by CalDem on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:12:23 PM EST

For Lunch? (none / 0)

What makes you say that? The polling I've seen shows Obama and Clinton more or less neck-and-neck in match-ups against McCain nationally and in key states like Ohio and Florida.

by HatchInBrooklyn on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:32:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And... (none / 0)

If you think McCain would beat Obama on experience alone, well... Obama will have already won one election over the "experienced" candidate(s).

by HatchInBrooklyn on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:34:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And... (none / 0)

yeah, overstated the 'eat his lunch' argument. but i'd put polling in 3 categories:

-states being actively contested: highly relevant
-national polls for party nominations: relevant, but a lot of it is based on hearsay and such, and can change quickly (as we've just seen in SC).
-national polls between GOP and Dem candidates: basically worthless except for general indications of which party is more popular.

once the GE is engaged, a candidate like Obama (who I support, though in an 'on the fence' sort of way) will definitely have weaknesses that will be more directly attacked by a GOP candidate. One of the reasons I'm sympathetic to Hillary's candidacy is that she answers most of the experience and toughness questions that the GOP always throws out, and the negativity has been played out against her.

On the other hand, Obama has a certain transcendence and he may be able to rise above that. Here's hoping...

by CalDem on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:47:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

what happened to my comment?

somebody said they would vote for mccain because he never did race baiting like hillary. i wanted to correct them by noting mccain hired terry nelson who ran the campaign against harold ford.

my own personal animus against mccain began when he mocked the recount effort in florida. he held a ballot to his forehead and pretended to divine the vote - ala carnac the magnificent. anybody who would make mockery of our right to vote is nothing but scum.

I really don't understand how that is an attack; lol. ~ by Jerome Armstrong

by jello on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:55:23 PM EST

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

more examples that counters the image of an "enlightened" mccain:

John McCain is trying to live down the fact that he voted in the Senate against a national Martin Luther King Day.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn 4155/is_19991221/ai_n13842777

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), a likely contender in 2008's presidential race, spent part of the Martin Luther King holiday at the swearing-in of a Republican governer who reportedly is a member of an organization that excludes blacks, according to a press release issued by the Democratic National Committee.

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2007/Sen._M cCain_once_against_King_holiday_0115.htm l

I really don't understand how that is an attack; lol. ~ by Jerome Armstrong

by jello on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 02:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

garry wills had an excellent essay tearing apart the mythology that is mccain. but i can't find it right now.

I really don't understand how that is an attack; lol. ~ by Jerome Armstrong

by jello on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 02:46:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is effort to knock Clinton not discuss Mcain (none / 0)

I agree with basic premise that McCain is their strongest candidate. Always have. Nevadadem however, is anti Hillary shill who is really using this as an opportunity to dis her as candidate. That's what this diary is about.

by ottovbvs on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 02:32:59 PM EST

Re: here comes McCain (none / 0)

If McCAin is the nominee, you better pray that Obama is NOT our nominee.

by labanman on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 02:55:24 PM EST

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