MyDD :: which position would you rather be in

which position would you rather be in

by nevadadem, Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 10:14:13 PM EST

It just occured to me we have a bit of a polling paradox
looking at the RCP average give or take Obama's down about 15 points nationally and tied in the first 3 big states Iowa, NH and SC, while Rudy is now down to being tied nationally but behind about 15 points on average in the early states (I know Mich matters for them but the point is still valid) the way the media builds up momnetum and covers these things which position would you rather be in Rudy's or Obama's.

They face the opposite problems/opportunities Rudy has to some how hope he's not left on the sidelines while watching everyone play and Obama has to hope momentum helps him in big feb 5 states where no one will be able to camapign that much before voting time. I beleive in momentum but it's debatable givin the primary calender.

Poll

Votes: 13
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: Obama Guliani polls (all tags)

Permalink :: 11 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: which position would you rather be in (none / 0)

Not missionary.

Isn't that a rather personal question?

by TomP on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 10:34:28 PM EST

Rudy is finished (none / 0)

No chance. Zero. Time to google-bomb Huckabee or Romney or McCain again.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 11:01:50 PM EST

Re: Rudy is finished (none / 0)

I think so too but if you look at betting markets people aren't giving up on him yet, he needs some how for a mish mosh until Florida, with Huckabee getting the jesus vote allowing Rudy'sSouth Florida retired italians and some jews to win a 30% plurality. My prediction right now depends on the dem race in Iowa

Hillary Iowa, McCain wins NH indies and rolls as the electable HRC alternative, in effect he becoems the new Rudy an entire candidacy based on percieved electablity.

muddled dem Iowa result......Romney wins he holds NH even if he loses Iowa and the majority of the GOP establishment falls in line.

Huckabee has no chance to actually be the nominee as the entire party will do everything to stop him with one candidate. Put on Rush Limbaugh and see why Huck can never get above 30 nationally.

Obama! because 51% isn't enough!

by nevadadem on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 11:19:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy is finished (none / 0)

I have no evidence for this but feel the case against Huckabee is often overstated. These are all the same reasons that have been suggesting he would never get to exactly where he is now. Imagine if Gingrich, and his resources, or Dobson, and his resources, or both, were suddenly on-board the Huckabee campaign.

The evangelical right riding a wave of neo-populism tilting against the eco-con/neo-con axis? I could see that gaining traction as well as dividing the party. We'll see. He's scaring the pants of Romney at the moment and Giuliani has got to be wondering where this stops. Rumours of his demise have been highly exaggerated in the past. It is a strange election year.

by Shaun Appleby on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 01:03:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy is finished (none / 0)

Huckabee's real name is Mike None-of-the-Above.

by hwc on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 01:21:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy is finished (none / 0)

He's a real wild card. Anything could happen.

by Shaun Appleby on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 03:09:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy is finished (none / 0)

Huckabee's support is every bit the mirage that Grandpa Fred's support was before he officially got into the race. It's placeholder support, "we aren't thrilled with any of them" support...I mean, my god: a crossdressing gay lovin' New Yorker or a flip-floppin' Stepford Mormon or a 72 year old maverick who doesn't even want to shoot Mexicans on sight.

Republican evangelicals would vote for a monkey if they could train him to thump a bible hard enough...and, of course, if the monkey didn't believe in evolution.

by hwc on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 03:39:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy is finished (none / 0)

I completely disagree. He has had some powerful moments in the debates and the campaign, defining moments which have given Republicans relief from the party line they have been offered. The test will be when he grows his support outside the boundaries of the evangelical movement and I don't think that will be an obstacle for him now that he has held his own with mainstream Republicans.

He made them all look mean and small with his take on scholarships and his line 'America is too great to punish children for their parents mistakes' is just the kind of take-away that creates strong support. His only natural enemy are the corporations but hell, they don't vote and he knows it.

by Shaun Appleby on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 03:49:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Huckabee in NOT a mirage. (none / 0)

Unlike Fred he's very smart, sharp as a tack, engaged and energetic. And most important of all he's an authenitic representation of values voters in the GOP. Thompson's candidacy was always preposterous and a reflection of the search by Republican voters for someone who truly reflected what they thought. He's about to implode as his support transfers to Huck the real thing. I'd say it's ultimately going to come down to a toss up between McCain and Huck. Either would be a win win for Democrats.

by ottovbvs on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 08:25:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Rudy will go the distance (none / 0)

I think he wins Florida with the NY connection and from there he is off and running. He still has a great chance. He has NY, NJ, CT, and PA in the bag.

Remember at the end of the day it is about delegates.

by dpANDREWS on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 08:36:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Comparison between Rudy and Obama specious. (none / 0)

Their situations are entirely different. Rudy is not even in contention, or only marginally so, in the first three or fours states and his lead shows signs of severe erosion in Florida and some of the super Tuesday states which he was counting on as the centerpiece of his strategy. Obama is tied against an enormously powerful opponent in the first three states all of which for one reason and another have slightly "different" electoral dynamics (IA's caucuses, NH's indie crossover, SC's black vote) while he is nowhere in the every other state. A dedicated Obama supporter like Nevadadem might consider this a strong strategic position but it doesn't seem so to me. As to Rudy he's far from over but he's far from being the front runner he was six weeks ago. Another serious scandal floating to the surface would probably finish him off.

by ottovbvs on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 08:19:42 AM EST

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